By the Chief Investment Office: Daniel Trum, CFA, Strategist; Thomas Flury, Strategist

 

Summary

  • Brexit uncertainty and a strong US economy should continue to favor the USD over the GBP for the next three months. Hedging currency risks looks attractive.
  • We still expect a favorable outcome for Brexit negotiations, but the risk of a cliff-edge Brexit remains significant. In our base case, GBPUSD should recover over six to 12 months.
  • We are maintaining our GBPUSD forecasts at 1.22 over three months, 1.30 over six months and 1.36 over 12 months.

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